VXN, the Nasdaq 100’s volatility index, fell below 20 for the first time in more than a month.

Historically, this has been a constructive signal for the Nasdaq 100. Across 20 prior completed cases since 2001, the Nasdaq 100 was higher one month later 85% of the time, with a 4.0% median gain and just a 2.0% median maximum drawdown.

This is an encouraging development heading into September and aligns with our broader base case: even if the market experiences a pullback in September or October, we expect the drawdown to remain relatively contained. We will talk more about our September outlook on tomorrow’s video that will be available under the MI Webinar section.

h/t: Seth Golden from the Finom Group

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1 – @TPMRSignals: Something BIG is happening in agriculture. The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index has now posted 10 consecutive daily gains—a feat not seen since 2009 and exceeded only 8 other times in more than a century.

2 – @AndreasSteno: Anthropic is second to none in history (also in inflation adjusted terms) in its journey towards ARR Sure, a lot rests on OpenAI and Anthropic, but they are the best delivering companies in the history of mankind..

3 – @BlakeMillardCFA: Fed picking up the baton dropped by households and money market funds.

4 – @zerohedge: Jackson Hole speech word count

5 – @WallStCourier: Despite a friendly tone in equity markets today, the broader trend picture is losing strength. Across the 28 global markets we track, 75% currently show a negative Modified MACD signal, pointing to a broad deterioration in momentum beneath the surface. This is not a sell signal on its own, but it does show that the global advance is becoming less robust and increasingly vulnerable to setbacks.

6 – @FactSet: Excluding $GOOG and $AMZN, the Q2 earnings growth rate for the “Magnificent 7” falls to 43.2% from 118.5%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://bit.ly/4gXAA3F

7 – @MacroCharts: One of many important charts I’m watching closely here.

8 – @MichaelMOTTCM: The gamma squeeze in semis appears to be over, as SMH implied volatility continues to melt.

9 – @robin_j_brooks: The big loser at this year’s Jackson Hole is the Yen, with $/JPY crossing back above 160. The one thing we know for sure is that FX intervention cannot work unless it’s backed up by monetary policy. Long-term JGB yields in Japan must rise to save the Yen. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-yen-is-in-deep-trouble

10 – @JTheretohelp1: The MNI Chicago PMI for August was a disaster, printing below even the worst analyst’s expectations. Against expectations of a rise to 57.9, the headline print crashed from 57.6 to 47.1 (flashing recession signals)…Zerohedge

11 – @markminervini: Since June, the NASDAQ has been tracking the cycle composite pretty closely. The question is, do we buck the tail end or get back in line with the probabilties?

12 – @intangiblecoins: ALL EYES ON BTC’S 50W MOVING AVERAGE every time BTC reclaimed the 50w MA in a bear market, the first time it retook that 50w the bottom was “in” 50w MA is currently $81.8k (will be ~$81.1k on sunday). retaking it historically has heralded the end of a bear can we get there?

13 – @MikeZaccardi: S&P 500 Expected to Report Earnings Growth of 31% for CY 2026 @factset

14 – @schaeffers: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole message: don’t declare victory on inflation yet. → 2% PCE target is “firm, fixed” → Inflation remains too high → Recent data hasn’t changed underlying trends enough → Rates remain Fed’s primary tool → Less forward guidance going forward

15 – @FactSet: The “Magnificent 7” companies reported earnings growth above 100% for Q2 2026, while the other 493 $SPX companies reported earnings growth of 32% for Q2 2026.

16 – @MikeZaccardi: Market Rewarded Positive EPS Surprises Less Than Average @factset

17 – @themarketear: AI power demand is projected to surge 1,100%. Transformer lead times have stretched to four years. The next AI bottleneck isn’t another chip—it’s the grid itself. https://zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ais-1100-power-shock-about-hit-grid-isnt-ready

18 – @RyanDetrick: The flipside is the 10 best Septembers ever usually saw green YTD coming into them. Sure, we could fall this September, but a large drop isn’t likely and odds favor this surprise midterm year rally continuing.

19 – @KevRGordon: At the beginning of the year, the estimate for S&P 500 earnings growth in the second quarter was +14.9%. Now, the blended growth rate is +53%

20 – @KevRGordon: Over the past five years, the S&P 500’s forward P/E is virtually unchanged, while the index’s price performance is +71.4%

21 – @TimmerFidelity: Based on global liquidity growth, gold is worth at least $5k and likely more if the global money supply reaccelerates.

It has now been 22 trading days since the S&P 500 last fell 1% or more in a single session, Not surprising looking at the market’s unusually subdued volatility. Since 2020, there have been 14 prior comparable cases. Four trading days later, the index was higher in 13 of 14 instances, a 92.9% hit rate.

This also aligns with the previous put/call ratio data point we highlighted. The S&P 500 remains range-bound, and after today’s weakness, a rebound toward the upper end of the range near 7,790 would not be surprising.

The equity-only put/call ratio (CPCE) fell below 0.4 for the first time after spending at least one month above it. Since 2020, the S&P 500 was higher five days later in 8 of 9 prior cases.

The sample is small, but with SPX still range-bound and no confirmed breakout or breakdown, a short-term bounce after today’s mild weakness would not be surprising.