The current oil crisis might be the biggest one seen this century. Google Trends shows relative search interest for “oil” at an all time high. This peak far exceeds the levels seen during the 2020 COVID crisis and in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

$VIX just closed below 25 after staying above that level for 8 straight days. This level still signals elevated volatility and near term swings in $SPX can remain choppy. But historically, 1 month later, $SPX was higher 14 out of 17 cases, with a median gain of 2.2%.

Oil surged over 10% in a single day but the S&P 500 still closed higher. We saw a similar setup in 2022. $SPX initially rose alongside crude, but eventually rolled over and made new lows. If tensions persist, the risk of a similar path cannot be ruled out.